Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -1000 LONG +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -13.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -14.3 (+6.7) | 140.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.4 (+10.6) | 135.5 (+7.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.9 (+8.1) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -13.3 (+7.7) | 140.6 (+2.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#85) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#51) | -1.43 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#39) | -1.61 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#31) | 0.459 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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