Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -450 BALL +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -11.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.7 (+6.3) | 155.0 (+4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.6 (+9.4) | 154.8 (+4.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.7 (+6.3) | 156.4 (+2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.9 (+7.1) | 156.4 (+2.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#63) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#88) | -0.37 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#84) | -0.23 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#51) | 0.483 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.