Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -400 GTWN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +16 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -9.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+43.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.2 (+6.8) | 135.9 (+44.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -8.2 (+7.8) | 136.7 (+43.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.4 (+6.6) | 134.5 (+45.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -8.9 (+7.1) | 135.7 (+44.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#29) | 6.1 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#33) | 1.26 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#25) | 1.63 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#41) | 0.532 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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