Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -110 CSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -2.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.5 (+4.5) | 143.3 (+23.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.2 (+4.2) | 141.1 (+25.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.2 (+3.2) | 142.3 (+24.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.8 (+3.8) | 142.7 (+24.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | 9.4 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#103) | 2.29 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#105) | 2.34 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#124) | 0.588 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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