Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | RGV -184 TAR +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +18 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -4.3 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -3.2 (-21.2) | 131.1 (-19.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -4.3 (-22.3) | 128.9 (-16.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -2.7 (-20.7) | 132.3 (-20.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -3.4 (-21.4) | 131.5 (-19.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 2-5 | 5-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#258) | -7.2 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#282) | -1.89 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#273) | -2.14 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#247) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 26.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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