Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MER -333 SAM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +28 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MER -7.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.9 (+20.1) | 151.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.7 (+22.3) | 147.1 (-1.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -8.7 (+19.3) | 152.3 (-6.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -8.7 (+19.3) | 152.9 (-6.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 2-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 4-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | -5.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#137) | -1.15 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#136) | -1.08 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#132) | 0.442 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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