What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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69–21 on winners spread MAE 10.9 91 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Duke +27.4 149.2 90% 62–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Kentucky +23.0 143.9 90% 53–99 ✓
Louisiana @ McNeese +9.6 129.1 82% 62–88 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Jacksonville State — — — 67–74 —
Norfolk State @ Towson +8.2 127.6 69% 41–51 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston +12.9 137.4 82% 61–88 ✓
The Citadel @ West Georgia +9.3 141.3 74% 92–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairfield +16.7 139.1 88% 71–73 ✓
Fordham @ Iona +18.3 140.1 88% 71–76 ✓
Furman @ Northern Iowa +19.7 132.3 88% 54–70 ✓
UAlbany @ Rhode Island +20.9 138.4 90% 61–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Bucknell +6.3 138.7 69% 83–77 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Drake +4.3 141.5 68% 61–59 ✗
High Point @ UAB +3.6 151.8 68% 74–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Ole Miss +15.3 141.5 86% 60–82 ✓
Illinois State @ USC +11.2 150.4 80% 67–87 ✓
New Orleans @ Tulane +10.0 145.1 78% 85–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Texas Tech +24.2 160.0 90% 63–80 ✓
Samford @ Arkansas +20.0 153.7 88% 75–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Creighton +8.1 137.3 80% 45–84 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Rice +9.0 141.2 83% 64–71 ✓
UCF @ Texas A&M +12.2 161.8 81% 86–74 ✗
Xavier @ Iowa +22.5 143.4 89% 62–81 ✓
Hampton @ Brown +3.1 145.5 59% 72–63 ✗
Northwestern @ DePaul -5.7 131.5 20% 81–79 ✓
Michigan @ TCU +3.0 160.4 58% 67–63 ✗
Colgate @ Illinois +28.0 153.8 91% 65–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina +25.1 148.4 91% 53–97 ✓
Cal Poly @ Montana +11.0 151.4 77% 82–90 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +28.6 152.3 90% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +14.2 148.1 79% 73–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +23.0 142.2 88% 66–76 ✓
Providence @ Colorado +10.3 168.3 64% 88–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +17.7 153.3 87% 81–94 ✓
Utah Tech @ Mississippi Valley State -10.8 151.8 19% 81–75 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -4.1 145.6 38% 69–65 ✓
North Texas @ Saint Mary's +9.9 128.9 79% 49–80 ✓
Troy @ Loyola Marymount +6.3 141.5 72% 63–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ California Baptist +14.4 135.5 84% 59–69 ✓
Gonzaga @ Arizona State -1.4 142.0 34% 77–65 ✓
Washington @ Washington State -6.4 148.2 28% 81–69 ✓
Manhattan @ Hawai'i +12.6 152.8 85% 56–86 ✓
South Alabama @ Coppin State -10.3 134.4 22% 72–62 ✓
Ohio @ Louisville +30.2 155.9 91% 81–106 ✓
Marshall @ Virginia +9.1 138.3 74% 78–104 ✓
Clemson @ Georgetown +1.0 139.9 47% 74–79 ✓
Kansas City @ Texas +32.4 151.0 91% 55–71 ✓
Delaware State @ New Haven -2.3 125.9 41% 52–65 ✗
Vermont @ Northeastern +9.1 144.8 78% 85–74 ✗
Merrimack @ Boston University +13.6 139.7 85% 91–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Toledo +9.8 149.7 82% 83–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ VMI +3.2 147.6 62% 69–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.7 149.9 75% 73–91 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -0.8 165.3 39% 102–95 ✓
Penn State @ La Salle -8.4 138.4 24% 83–69 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +30.7 151.5 90% 79–86 ✓
Princeton @ Kansas +24.7 143.3 90% 57–76 ✓
Austin Peay @ UNC Greensboro -6.0 141.1 25% 69–63 ✓
UTSA @ Denver +16.0 149.2 87% 84–79 ✗
New Hampshire @ George Mason +22.5 144.8 90% 44–61 ✓
Mercer @ Winthrop +6.7 152.5 73% 69–105 ✓
Wofford @ Bellarmine +5.5 138.0 63% 94–86 ✗
Maryland @ Marquette +13.6 143.7 85% 89–82 ✗
UIC @ Chicago State -1.9 154.3 41% 67–63 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Air Force -7.7 144.6 25% 76–61 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Stonehill +2.0 133.2 69% 74–63 ✗
Butler @ SMU +3.1 156.9 63% 85–87 ✓
Boston College @ Temple +15.0 142.4 81% 76–71 ✗
Harvard @ Army +4.4 150.1 63% 75–52 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Southeast Missouri State +12.1 142.8 85% 84–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Vanderbilt +34.4 157.1 91% 75–104 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Alabama +2.6 139.8 63% 78–74 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Queens University +7.5 147.8 79% 64–81 ✓
Binghamton @ Longwood +9.0 140.5 75% 82–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +12.6 138.5 85% 68–75 ✓
Wright State @ Radford +4.2 142.4 60% 92–59 ✗
Drexel @ Syracuse +14.9 136.6 88% 50–80 ✓
UTEP @ Utah State +15.9 137.0 87% 51–75 ✓
Montana State @ Boise State +17.2 142.1 87% 58–62 ✓
Idaho @ UC San Diego +11.8 143.3 81% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ St. Bonaventure +9.8 145.5 80% 80–84 ✓
Morgan State @ Mercyhurst +9.8 135.8 74% 72–86 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +10.4 137.0 76% 81–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Texas State +14.0 145.7 88% 67–77 ✓
North Dakota @ UC Riverside +12.8 145.3 82% 76–74 ✗
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +2.3 146.6 60% 85–73 ✗
Nicholls @ Murray State +17.1 143.1 88% 79–99 ✓
William & Mary @ St. John's +6.9 167.5 69% 60–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Davidson +4.8 130.8 56% 87–91 ✓
Missouri State @ UT Arlington +4.7 144.4 58% 49–67 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Washington +23.0 141.1 90% 73–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.