Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -2500 XAV +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -26.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -15.0 (+4.0) | 138.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -19.1 (-0.1) | 142.6 (+0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -24.4 (-5.4) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -22.5 (-3.5) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#41) | -6.7 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#52) | -0.15 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#40) | -0.22 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#52) | 0.608 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 52.6% | 35.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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