Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +230 HARV -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +23 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -6.9 (-29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-39.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -2.0 (-25.0) | 147.8 (-20.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -4.2 (-27.2) | 151.5 (-24.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -4.7 (-27.7) | 153.1 (-26.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -4.4 (-27.4) | 150.1 (-23.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | HARV 70 – 64 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-4 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#354) | -11.2 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#326) | -1.66 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#331) | -2.46 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#274) | 0.346 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.3% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.0% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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