Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -650 DETM +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -13.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.1 (-1.1) | 150.5 (+22.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.0 (-1.0) | 150.7 (+22.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.6 (-1.6) | 152.1 (+20.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -9.8 (-2.8) | 149.7 (+23.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | TOL 82 – 67 DETM |
| Nov 7, 2023 | TOL 94 – 60 DETM |
| Nov 14, 2021 | TOL 81 – 73 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#234) | -6.7 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#223) | -0.70 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#217) | -0.97 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#138) | 0.375 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.3% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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