Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -440 DETM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -25.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.3 (-8.3) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -19.0 (-11.0) | 135.1 (+18.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | TOL 90 – 83 DETM |
| Nov 16, 2024 | TOL 82 – 67 DETM |
| Nov 7, 2023 | TOL 94 – 60 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-1 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#62) | -8.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#51) | -0.40 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#51) | -0.64 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#211) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 31.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 8.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 9.2% |
| DRB% | 85.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.7% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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