Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CHST +450 UIC -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -0.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -6.9 (+2.9) | 156.2 (-26.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.6 (-0.4) | 153.2 (-23.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.8 (-1.2) | 153.9 (-23.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -1.9 (-2.1) | 154.3 (-24.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-19 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#321) | 2.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#289) | 0.16 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#299) | 0.34 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#216) | 0.542 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 43.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.3% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 56.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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