Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -2500 UNT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +31 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -14.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -8.7 (+22.3) | 128.5 (+0.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -10.0 (+21.0) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.8 (+22.2) | 132.8 (-3.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.9 (+21.1) | 128.9 (+0.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2022 | SMC 63 – 33 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#73) | 2.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#124) | 0.47 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#130) | 0.47 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#111) | 0.533 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 46.9% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 45.4% |
Game Analysis
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