Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -10000 TAR +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +13 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -23.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -17.7 (-4.7) | 153.3 (+21.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -18.7 (-5.7) | 152.8 (+22.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -17.0 (-4.0) | 152.1 (+22.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -19.9 (-6.9) | 152.8 (+22.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | BAY 104 – 41 TAR |
| Dec 7, 2022 | BAY 80 – 57 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#62) | -6.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#65) | 0.04 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#64) | 0.02 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.771 (#13) | 0.510 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 41.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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