Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
Foster Pavilion · November 15, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -23.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Over
Money BAY -10000 / TAR +2500
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +13 175 Won
Massey BAY -23.2 (-10.2)
Massey Totals 166.0 (+9.0)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -17.7 (-4.7) 153.3 (+21.7) 87%
Model 4 ML BAY -18.7 (-5.7) 152.8 (+22.2) 89%
Model 3 ML BAY -17.0 (-4.0) 152.1 (+22.9) 89%
Baseline ML BAY -19.9 (-6.9) 152.8 (+22.2) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2024 BAY 10441 TAR
Dec 7, 2022 BAY 8057 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY TAR
Overall 17-17 14-18
Conference 6-12 5-13
Home 11-6 10-6
Away 3-7 4-11
Neutral 3-4 0-1
Last 5 2-0 2-2
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 80.4 72.5
Avg Pts Against 76.9 75.8
Massey 6.6 (#62) -6.6 (#287)
Bradley-Terry 1.33 (#65) 0.04 (#175)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.95 (#64) 0.02 (#173)
RPI 0.771 (#13) 0.510 (#167)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY TAR
FG% 47.9% 42.4%
3PT% 33.3% 36.4%
REB / G 37.5 30.8
OREB / G 9.5 11.0
AST / TO 1.50 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.0% 47.9%
TOV% 13.2% 19.2%
ORB% 27.5% 32.8%
FT Rate 33.9% 41.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 56.4%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 21.3%
DRB% 75.7% 63.2%
Opp FT Rate 15.5% 43.4%

Game Analysis

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