Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -2500 TAR +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -14.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -13.2 (+9.8) | 152.0 (-15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -16.6 (+6.4) | 147.8 (-10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -11.9 (+11.1) | 152.5 (-15.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -12.6 (+10.4) | 151.5 (-14.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | BAY 94 – 81 TAR |
| Nov 18, 2024 | BAY 104 – 41 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#22) | 3.7 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#29) | 0.99 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#39) | 1.45 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#47) | 0.564 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 37.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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