All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Foster Pavilion · November 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -31.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +63 145 Won
Massey BAY -33.5 (+29.5)
Massey Totals 146.2 (-1.2)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -33.1 (+29.9) 146.8 (-1.8) 91%
Model 4 ML BAY -23.3 (+39.7) 141.8 (+3.2) 90%
Model 3 ML BAY -23.3 (+39.7) 142.3 (+2.7) 90%
Baseline ML BAY -31.3 (+31.7) 145.7 (-0.7) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2025 BAY 9481 TAR
Dec 7, 2022 BAY 8057 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY TAR
Overall 20-15 12-20
Conference 10-10 7-9
Home 13-3 10-3
Away 3-9 1-14
Neutral 4-3 1-3
Last 5 2-1 0-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 75.2 60.2
Avg Pts Against 70.3 70.2
Massey 8.3 (#55) -18.3 (#361)
Bradley-Terry 2.01 (#39) -1.97 (#324)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.30 (#32) -2.94 (#321)
RPI 0.787 (#6) 0.385 (#291)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY TAR
FG% 47.9% 37.7%
3PT% 31.2% 35.0%
REB / G 35.3 28.3
OREB / G 13.0 9.3
AST / TO 1.51 0.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 42.4%
TOV% 16.8% 29.6%
ORB% 36.4% 26.9%
FT Rate 17.4% 31.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.3% 57.4%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 22.0%
DRB% 65.0% 57.0%
Opp FT Rate 14.4% 33.1%

Game Analysis

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