Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +63 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -33.5 (+29.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -33.1 (+29.9) | 146.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -23.3 (+39.7) | 141.8 (+3.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -23.3 (+39.7) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -31.3 (+31.7) | 145.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | BAY 94 – 81 TAR |
| Dec 7, 2022 | BAY 80 – 57 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#55) | -18.3 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#39) | -1.97 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#32) | -2.94 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.787 (#6) | 0.385 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 29.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 57.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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