Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -4000 MTST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -19.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -17.1 (-13.1) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -16.3 (-12.3) | 141.7 (-21.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -17.8 (-13.8) | 142.8 (-22.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -17.2 (-13.2) | 142.1 (-22.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#53) | -0.2 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#80) | -2.95 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#72) | -4.13 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#39) | 0.389 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 39.7% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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