Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -120 ETSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -3.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -1.8 (-5.8) | 140.0 (+12.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -1.9 (-5.9) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -2.2 (-6.2) | 141.5 (+10.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -2.6 (-6.6) | 139.8 (+12.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#323) | -2.4 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#215) | -0.60 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#238) | -1.26 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.292 (#336) | 0.333 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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