Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +100 CLEM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CLEM -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -3.5 (+8.5) | 135.1 (+17.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -0.8 (+4.2) | 137.0 (+16.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -1.1 (+3.9) | 136.6 (+16.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -1.0 (+4.0) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#97) | 16.1 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#15) | 0.72 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#15) | 0.96 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#130) | 0.424 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 4.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 10.5% | 7.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 36.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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