Betting Lines
| Spread | WGA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WGA -270 CIT +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +8 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | WGA -16.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WGA -9.0 (-1.0) | 138.8 (+53.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WGA -8.9 (-0.9) | 142.2 (+49.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WGA -10.1 (-2.1) | 141.1 (+50.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WGA -9.3 (-1.3) | 141.3 (+50.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#314) | -15.2 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#240) | -3.36 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#244) | -5.14 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#172) | 0.052 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 9.5% |
| DRB% | 58.2% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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