Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -5000 MRSH +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +26 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -9.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+33.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -9.1 (+16.9) | 138.3 (+43.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -7.2 (+18.8) | 146.3 (+35.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -7.1 (+18.9) | 143.0 (+39.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.7 (+19.3) | 142.4 (+39.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#52) | 9.1 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#121) | 3.23 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#122) | 4.58 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#239) | 0.792 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 48.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 61.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 52.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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