Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -210 TROY +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -6.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -3.1 (+7.9) | 145.4 (-8.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -6.6 (+4.4) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -8.4 (+2.6) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -6.3 (+4.7) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#116) | 6.5 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#31) | 2.98 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#37) | 4.14 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#213) | 0.719 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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