Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -300 CP +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -9.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.9 (+3.1) | 148.4 (+23.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -5.3 (+2.7) | 148.6 (+23.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -6.1 (+1.9) | 150.2 (+21.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -11.0 (-3.0) | 151.4 (+20.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 85.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#126) | 3.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#70) | 1.57 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#60) | 2.18 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#71) | 0.732 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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