Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +44 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -28.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -24.9 (+19.1) | 148.6 (+1.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -20.3 (+23.7) | 149.1 (+0.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -27.3 (+16.7) | 151.6 (-1.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -25.1 (+18.9) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2020 | UNC 73 – 67 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#43) | -8.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#78) | -1.21 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#81) | -1.90 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.715 (#35) | 0.384 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 46.3 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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