Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -7000 NCCU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -18.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -14.3 (-8.3) | 147.3 (-7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -16.2 (-10.2) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -16.4 (-10.4) | 148.8 (-8.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UNC 97 – 53 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#39) | -2.1 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#84) | 0.03 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#62) | 0.15 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#80) | 0.487 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 48.6 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 43.4% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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