Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -700 UCF +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -11.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -8.7 (-20.7) | 158.1 (+1.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -9.1 (-21.1) | 158.3 (+1.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -9.6 (-21.6) | 158.5 (+1.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -12.2 (-24.2) | 161.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2024 | UCF 64 – 61 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | 1.3 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | -0.84 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | -1.28 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#238) | 0.414 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 53.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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