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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–5 on winners spread MAE 10.9 16 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Alabama +18.7 149.8 88% 87–80 ✗
Alcorn State @ Howard +3.6 142.5 60% 64–72 ✓
Le Moyne @ Massachusetts +9.6 141.3 84% 80–94 ✓
Monmouth @ Seton Hall +20.9 127.8 88% 58–70 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Columbia +27.1 139.6 91% 72–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Grambling -1.3 145.5 35% 70–75 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Wichita State +26.2 146.7 89% 74–95 ✓
Florida International @ LSU +30.0 147.9 91% 81–98 ✓
Green Bay @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +4.4 140.5 68% 61–80 ✓
UL Monroe @ Houston Christian +6.4 142.1 77% 61–72 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Alabama A&M -2.7 151.4 48% 64–68 ✗
California @ Kansas State +7.4 149.1 76% 96–99 ✓
Central Michigan @ Coppin State -5.7 136.2 27% 82–59 ✓
Lehigh @ Rutgers +18.8 130.0 89% 72–84 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Eastern Michigan +13.7 153.1 86% 90–83 ✗
Lindenwood @ Charleston Southern +12.3 151.5 86% 83–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.