Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -165 PUR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +7 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -20.0 (-27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -18.7 (-25.7) | 149.8 (+17.2) | 88% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALA -12.8 (-19.8) | 156.3 (+10.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ALA -15.3 (-22.3) | 148.1 (+18.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -17.4 (-24.4) | 150.5 (+16.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | PUR 87 – 78 ALA |
| Dec 9, 2023 | PUR 92 – 86 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#50) | -0.5 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#13) | 0.52 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#7) | 0.65 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#70) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 3.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 9.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 8.0% |
Game Analysis
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