Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | PUR +150 ALA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -4.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.3 (+2.7) | 153.2 (+11.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PUR -5.6 (+3.4) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PUR -4.9 (+4.1) | 149.8 (+15.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.2 (+3.8) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2025 | PUR 87 – 80 ALA |
| Dec 9, 2023 | PUR 92 – 86 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#87) | 9.2 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#113) | 1.10 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#118) | 1.47 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.549 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.4% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.2% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 40.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.