Betting Lines
| Spread | WICH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WICH -230 LUC +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WICH +21 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | WICH -27.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WICH -19.7 (+1.3) | 143.9 (+25.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WICH -24.7 (-3.7) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WICH -26.2 (-5.2) | 146.7 (+22.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#39) | -7.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#119) | -2.00 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#113) | -2.85 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#125) | 0.258 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 46.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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