Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -300 ALCN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -6.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -3.3 (+4.7) | 139.7 (-3.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.4 (+4.6) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.5 (+4.5) | 147.2 (-11.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -3.6 (+4.4) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#348) | -8.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#348) | -1.18 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.39 (#346) | -1.63 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#290) | 0.406 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.7% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 57.4% | 57.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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