Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -140 USM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -1.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.4 (+5.4) | 144.5 (+0.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.5 (+5.5) | 147.0 (-2.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -1.7 (+3.3) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.3 (+6.3) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2025 | USM 68 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#249) | 5.3 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#87) | -0.40 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#100) | -0.37 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#118) | 0.611 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 25.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 55.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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