Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | USM -410 GRAM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | USM -10.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -10.1 (-2.1) | 140.6 (-12.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USM -8.6 (-0.6) | 139.1 (-11.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USM -8.4 (-0.4) | 141.3 (-13.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -8.9 (-0.9) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2025 | GRAM 75 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#149) | -4.5 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#178) | -0.72 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#158) | -1.07 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#144) | 0.472 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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