Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HCU -450 ULM +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -16.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -7.3 (+3.7) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -6.4 (+4.6) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -8.0 (+3.0) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | HCU 74 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-14 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#183) | -6.9 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#198) | -1.10 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | -1.97 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#74) | 0.354 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 9.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 56.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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