Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU -120 CHSO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -1.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -0.4 (+3.6) | 149.7 (-17.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -0.3 (+3.7) | 148.7 (-16.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHSO -2.7 (+6.7) | 151.4 (-19.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#328) | -0.9 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#197) | 1.06 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#192) | 1.41 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#38) | 0.550 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 19.0 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 3.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 7.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 70.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 9.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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