Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MASS -2000 LEM +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +14 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -10.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -9.4 (+4.6) | 139.7 (+34.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -8.6 (+5.4) | 141.2 (+32.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -9.9 (+4.1) | 143.4 (+30.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -9.6 (+4.4) | 141.3 (+32.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#208) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#242) | -0.89 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#229) | -1.14 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#213) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 29.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.9% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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