Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -120 APSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -5.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.9 (-1.1) | 141.8 (-9.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -6.2 (+0.2) | 138.7 (-6.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -6.7 (+0.7) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -6.0 (+0.0) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#333) | 5.9 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#333) | 0.88 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#321) | 1.37 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#270) | 0.550 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.4% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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