Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -1800 NICH +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +20 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -17.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -12.0 (+8.0) | 145.2 (+32.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -15.6 (+4.4) | 141.0 (+37.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -17.1 (+2.9) | 144.3 (+33.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -17.1 (+2.9) | 143.1 (+34.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#69) | -1.2 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#132) | -1.21 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#136) | -1.59 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#203) | 0.292 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 40.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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