Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +39 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -14.9 (+24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -14.1 (+24.9) | 135.6 (-6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -7.9 (+31.1) | 131.6 (-2.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -8.9 (+30.1) | 135.5 (-6.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -8.1 (+30.9) | 137.3 (-8.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#196) | -6.2 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#201) | -0.81 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#204) | -1.04 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#103) | 0.514 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 29.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 33.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 31.2% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 11.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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