Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE -340 SIUE +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -4.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -5.4 (-7.4) | 144.8 (-24.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -3.2 (-5.2) | 133.6 (-13.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -2.8 (-4.8) | 132.7 (-12.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -4.3 (-6.3) | 141.5 (-21.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#274) | 0.3 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#273) | -0.86 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#267) | -1.76 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.292 (#334) | 0.219 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 37.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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