Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -6000 UNH +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +17 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -24.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-46.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -18.3 (-1.3) | 143.7 (-38.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -22.5 (-5.5) | 144.2 (-39.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -22.5 (-5.5) | 144.8 (-39.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 17-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#141) | -12.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#100) | -1.56 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#97) | -2.56 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#62) | 0.281 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 37.7% | 11.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 10.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 42.1% |
Game Analysis
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