Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -30.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -27.5 (-11.5) | 150.5 (-24.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -24.0 (-8.0) | 151.8 (-25.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -30.9 (-14.9) | 150.3 (-24.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -32.4 (-16.4) | 151.0 (-25.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 12-5 | 3-11 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 84.8 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#33) | -9.6 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#199) | -1.86 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#197) | -2.68 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#279) | 0.312 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 43.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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