Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -1400 NORF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 92 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -12.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (-36.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -6.0 (+4.0) | 126.0 (-34.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.1 (+2.9) | 128.9 (-36.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.6 (+2.4) | 127.9 (-35.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -8.2 (+1.8) | 127.6 (-35.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#158) | -1.5 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#169) | -2.20 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#176) | -2.85 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#206) | 0.062 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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