Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -650 YSU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -7.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -5.3 (-1.3) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -6.8 (-2.8) | 145.4 (+18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -10.8 (-6.8) | 145.3 (+18.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -9.8 (-5.8) | 145.5 (+18.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#123) | 5.4 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#34) | 1.62 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#38) | 2.45 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.755 (#16) | 0.722 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 52.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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