We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Leo D. Mahoney Arena · November 15, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -6.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money FAIR -320 / STO +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual FAIR +2 144 Won
Massey FAIR -23.4 (-21.4)
Massey Totals 144.0 (-0.0)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML FAIR -11.2 (-9.2) 141.6 (+2.4) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -13.7 (-11.7) 139.0 (+5.0) 86%
Baseline ML FAIR -15.8 (-13.8) 136.7 (+7.3) 85%
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -16.7 (-14.7) 139.1 (+4.9) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR STO
Overall 21-13 12-21
Conference 11-9 8-10
Home 12-4 8-5
Away 7-8 4-15
Neutral 2-1 0-1
Last 5 1-2 0-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.9 64.2
Avg Pts Against 71.9 69.5
Massey 9.3 (#46) -4.1 (#252)
Bradley-Terry 2.38 (#16) -1.21 (#292)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.81 (#9) -1.77 (#293)
RPI 0.720 (#31) 0.333 (#315)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR STO
FG% 36.6% 36.7%
3PT% 29.1% 33.3%
REB / G 43.3 36.5
OREB / G 13.7 9.0
AST / TO 0.68 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 42.7% 44.5%
TOV% 18.9% 25.5%
ORB% 32.0% 24.0%
FT Rate 22.6% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.1% 46.3%
Opp TOV% 14.0% 12.1%
DRB% 74.8% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 32.0%

Game Analysis

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