Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -320 STO +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -23.4 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -11.2 (-9.2) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -13.7 (-11.7) | 139.0 (+5.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -15.8 (-13.8) | 136.7 (+7.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -16.7 (-14.7) | 139.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#46) | -4.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#16) | -1.21 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#9) | -1.77 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.720 (#31) | 0.333 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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