Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -380 BUT +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -1.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.1 (-0.1) | 152.4 (+19.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.7 (-0.7) | 149.0 (+23.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.3 (-0.3) | 149.6 (+22.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.1 (-1.1) | 156.9 (+15.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | BUT 81 – 70 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#142) | 11.0 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#71) | 0.71 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#76) | 0.97 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#66) | 0.465 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 50.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 45.5% |
| FT Rate | 44.3% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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