Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BUT +105 SMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -1.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -0.6 (+10.4) | 151.2 (-0.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -2.1 (+8.9) | 147.6 (+3.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -1.7 (+9.3) | 150.6 (+0.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -2.7 (+8.3) | 151.6 (-0.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SMU 87 – 85 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#231) | 4.6 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#243) | 0.97 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#235) | 1.32 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#204) | 0.579 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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