Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | STO +230 L-MD -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -3.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -2.5 (-13.5) | 132.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -3.8 (-14.8) | 130.5 (+6.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -3.2 (-14.2) | 131.0 (+6.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -2.0 (-13.0) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#252) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#292) | -2.70 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#293) | -3.81 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#315) | 0.229 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 21.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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