Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -29.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -25.0 (-6.0) | 151.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -22.5 (-3.5) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -28.4 (-9.4) | 153.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -28.0 (-9.0) | 153.8 (-4.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | ILL 74 – 57 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#7) | -3.4 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#81) | -1.71 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#78) | -2.03 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#73) | 0.426 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 48.7 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 43.9% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 81.1% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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