Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | ILL -1400 COLG +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -17.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.8 (+3.2) | 143.9 (-12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.1 (+1.9) | 139.4 (-8.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -15.7 (+1.3) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -15.5 (+1.5) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | ILL 84 – 65 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#14) | 2.1 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#23) | 0.81 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#18) | 0.68 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#37) | 0.539 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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